Everyday Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical count of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder numbers may not point to improved national stability.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidency in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also concerning because it might hide days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by high bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.