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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|